Global refinery closures and capacity expansions

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A guide to navigate Commodity Insights LIVE: SAF and Jet Fuel in an age of transition

S&P Global Platts published its first jet fuel prices more than 50 years ago. Even though the aviation industry has changed considerably since then, our real-time news, market reports, analysis, price assessments and fundamental data continue to provide a valuable reference point for jet fuel buyers and sellers. This page helps you navigate the latest news, insights and interactive content from S&P Global Commodity Insights and our partner IATA. News UK SAF policies put uptake targets at risk: aviation leaders INDIA ELECTIONS: Policy incentives in spotlight to drive biofuels transition Fuels of the future: Unpacking the pathway for advanced fuels in Brazil Interactive Interactive: Platts SAF-Jet Fuel blend price The future for SAF with the IATA Aviation Energy Forum on the horizon Jet Fuel considerations with IATA’s Forum on the horizon Harnessing CO2 for Production of Sustainable Fuels Perspectives with Nicholas Flanders Series LIVE Markets and price assessments LIVE Markets Homepage Sustainable Aviation Fuel CIF ARA Platts Global Transportation Fuels Index World Jet Indexes IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor Meet the Team If you would like more information on SAF/Jet Fuel please do reach out to our S&P Global Commodity Insights experts: Sophie Byron, Global Director of Biofuels Pricing , will be presenting in an afternoon workshop on “How the Price of SAF is Assessed”. Sophie brings extensive expertise in price assessments for SAF and other biofuels, spearheading the application of the Platts methodology in Biofuels pricing, and playing a pivotal role in the development of the Platts eWindow for SAF. Gary Clark, Associate Director of European Clean & Refined Products , will kick off the commercial session on Thursday morning with a discussion “Explaining Jet Fuel Prices – Regional Variations & Medium to Long-Term Forecast” Gary specializes in European middle distillate pricing and offers analysis of diesel, gasoil, and jet fuel markets, among others, while ensuring adherence to Platts pricing methodology. Debnil Chowdhury, Executive Director of Refined Products Market Research , will be hosting a closed breakfast event for industry leaders to discuss “The Security of Future Jet Supply”. Debnil leads a dedicated team focused on research and analysis of global downstream oil markets, with a keen emphasis on evaluating the supply, demand, and transportation of oil products, including jet fuel. In addition to these esteemed speakers, other S&P Global Commodity Insights Market Experts attending include: Adam Probert – Director, eWindow Global Markets , who oversees the Platts eWindow platform and is instrumental in supporting futures contracts against Platts prices for various commodities, including Jet Cargoes and Derivatives, among others. Adam is currently spearheading the development of the Platts eWindow for SAF, slated for launch later this year. Ina Chirita – Associate Director, Biofuel Value Chain Service (BVCS) , specializing in European biofuels regulation and providing invaluable insights into the SAF market through the BVCS's long-term forecasts for biofuels demand, supply, and prices. James Simpson - Senior Aviation Specialist , who focuses on critical aviation issues, including SAF projects, substitutes for SAF, and aviation strategy, bringing extensive knowledge and experience to the table. We look forward to the opportunity to engage with you during the IATA Aviation Energy Forum and exchange ideas that drive innovation and progress in the aviation energy sector.

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Dangote refinery pursues long-term US crude supply despite domestic overhang

US crude oil could remain a staple feedstock for Nigeria's Dangote refinery in the medium term, as the plant has courted another year's worth of WTI Midland supply despite ample availability for domestic grades. In a tender set to close May 21, Dangote has sought to lock in 2 million barrels per month of WTI Midland crude oil from July 2024, in a proposed 12-month offtake agreement, according to terms seen by S&P Global Commodity Insights. While the refinery is geared towards processing Nigerian grades, WTI crude has represented around a third of its crude imports since December, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data, with the feedstock processed in some of the plant's first test runs on the year. According to CAS, the refinery took delivery of 11 WTI cargoes, or 9 million barrels, between February and May, contrasting with around 18 million barrels of Nigerian crude deliveries. Now, the move to secure a longer-term offtake agreement signals a commitment by the refinery to more permanently diversify its crude sources, coinciding with a period of extreme demand weakness for Nigerian supply. "It's a little surprising that they are seeking term WTI at this stage," said one West African crude trader, noting demand weakness that pushed Nigeria's flagship Bonny Light crude to a discount to Dated Brent for the first time since November on May. 17. According to Platts assessments Bonny Light FOB Nigeria premiums flipped to a discount of 5 cents/b to Dated Brent on May 17, down from a premium of 70 cents/b the previous week. Platts is a part of S&P Global Commodity Insights. "Domestically of course there will be dismay that they are turning to non-Nigerian crude and hence not supporting the country's own production," he said, pointing to pressure at home for the refinery's operations to support the ailing crude market. Cost advantage, supply certainty Yet so long as international grades remain competitive to domestic supply, the refinery will continue to optimize accordingly. "My assumption is that they see WTI Midland as likely always being a competitive valued barrel, even vs FOB Nigerian and at least in this stage of the refinery's startup to full capacity," said the trader. Nigeria's state-run Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), also 20% equity holder in the project, has been widely expected to supply the bulk of Dangote's crude demands, selling to the refinery in USD due to its location in the Lekki free zone. Yet while the producer may be able to fulfil the refinery's crude requirements during its ramp-up, it could struggle to exclusively fulfil demand from Dangote at full utilization, while leaving the refiner exposed to supply disruptions. To date, the refinery has only taken delivery of Nigerian and US crude grades, but it could increasingly seek alternative term contracts with alternative supply sources as it scales production, traders have speculated. "It's not unexpected that they would seek to cover base requirements for the refinery through term business in the same way for example some of Indian refiners do with Middle Eastern crude," said one source. Racing to ramp-up As the refinery's management has continued to signal ambitious timelines for delivery of its first gasoline supplies to the domestic market, considerations around supporting crude revenues could also take a backseat. Speaking at the Africa CEO Forum Annual Summit in Kigali, refinery owner Aliko Dangote announced that Nigeria would have no need to import "a drop" of gasoline from June, pledging that new supply from the refinery would end a historic reliance on the fuel grade in the coming weeks, according to reports from local media. With the government expected to be partially subsidizing costs for continued gasoline exports, the first supplies from the refiner would ease pressure on the national budget, though S&P analysts have said the first gasoline supplies are unlikely to arrive before Q3 2024. "For now the key concern for Abuja is whether the refinery is able to produce petrol, and therefore how soon they can actually get on with subsidy removal that relieves massive pressure on public finances. So while that's the first priority, I suspect they won't mind so much where the crude comes from," said Clementine Wallop, director for sub-Saharan Africa at political risk consultancy Horizon Engage. At full capacity, the 650,000 b/d refinery is expected to yield some 327,000 b/d of gasoline, however timelines and volumes to be allocated domestically remain uncertain. Representatives for Dangote were not available to comment on crude supply plans for the site.

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Infographic: Why Asian refiners quietly praise India's, China's Russian crude imports

India's unwavering appetite for Russian crude has provided ample bandwidth to Middle Eastern sour crude suppliers to cater to the needs of South Korea, Japan, Thailand and other East Asian buyers. Even if OPEC+ decides to extend production cuts, East Asian refiners are confident they can secure adequate Middle East sour crude term supplies. View full-size infographic Also listen:

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Infographic: Ukraine invasion having profound impact on oil trade flows

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had a profound impact on sour crude export destinations, and increased the appetite for sweet crudes among European refiners. Platts methodology has evolved to reflect this changing landscape. Click here to see the full-size infographic.