S&P Global Commodity Insights Weekly ET News Highlights – Apr 15, 2024

Moment of truth looms for European green hydrogen investments

Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring you the biggest stories from the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices.

Time is running out to get on track with Europe's ambitious 2030 hydrogen production targets as developers due to take final investment decisions battle macroeconomic headwinds, industry representatives said at the Reuters Hydrogen conference in Amsterdam.

Recent years have seen a multitude of project announcements, pre-front end engineering design studies, FEED studies and preliminary investments, though FIDs have been scarce.

"There are some board rooms that are getting a little bit impatient by now," Rabobank Executive Director Hyung-ja de Zeeuw said April 9. "If you think that we’ve only got six years left until 2030, I guess 2024 is going to be a key year for clean hydrogen projects here in Europe."

Around 4% of announced clean hydrogen projects in Europe have taken FIDs, according to Hydrogen Council Director Policy and Partnerships Daria Nochevnik.

Price of the week: Eur4.50/kg

The price ceiling for the first pilot auction under the European Hydrogen Bank mechanism. Results will be announced April 30, with the fund expected to clear well below the cap.

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Biden's carbon capture plans inch closer to reality amid uptick in well permits

The Biden administration's ambition to capture carbon dioxide on a large scale and inject it back into the ground may have seemed daunting one year ago with only two CO2 storage facilities in the US. But a boost in federal spending on the technology in 2021 and 2022 may finally be bearing fruit after a sudden uptick in permits, according to industry watchers.

Australia to unveil new plan for clean energy, green manufacturing: PM

Australia will unveil a new plan in 2024 to support clean energy and green manufacturing projects to compete better against other nations’ subsidy schemes such as the US’ Inflation Reduction Act to draw investments in clean fuels, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said, in what is being seeing as a pointer to big new fund allocations coming up.

Escalating geopolitical tensions may give carbon market a key role to play: GenZero

Carbon markets will be most critical in a scenario where global climate action is fragmented and geopolitical tensions are at their highest, as opposed to a scenario of full climate cooperation where carbon markets are least needed, Singapore’s state-owned decarbonization investment platform GenZero said.

Platts Connect

European Hydrogen Bank pilot auction to clear well below Eur4.50/kg price ceiling

The first pilot auction for green hydrogen production under the EU’s European Hydrogen Bank facility will clear comfortably below the price ceiling of Eur4.50/kg ($4.89/kg), Innovation Fund policy officer Johanna Schiele said April 10. The results of the first Eur800 million auction will be released on April 30, Schiele said.

Hydrogen market developing in New York; regulatory, power market challenges remain

Using hydrogen to generate power in New York does not currently add up economically, but there is reason for optimism as the technology to do so will likely be needed in some capacity to help meet state decarbonization goals, experts said.

China’s CEIC starts construction of 100,000 mt/year capacity green ammonia project

China Energy Investment Corporation, one of the country’s largest state-owned energy companies, has started construction of its renewable ammonia project in Cangzhou in the eastern province of Hebei with a planned annual production capacity of 100,000 mt, likely to be completed by Q4 2025.

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IRA investments top $123 billion but are slowing, business group finds

Announces 105,454 jobs in 40 states, Puerto Rico Republican districts land most of the investment, jobs A $1.4 billion investment by Toyota to build a new SUV at its Indiana plant and a $294 million solar technology investment for North Carolina in April added to the growing tally of large clean energy projects and jobs that the Inflation Reduction Act has spurred since 2022, according to business group E2. The investment by Boviet Solar Technology, a Vietnamese manufacturer of monocrystalline photovoltaic cells, is expected to bring 908 jobs to eastern North Carolina, E2 reported. Also new for April was a $400 million hydrogen manufacturing plant announced for Virginia and a $10 million planned investment in Alabama by a company making steel structures for solar panels. But the pace of new investments has been slowing significantly this year compared with 2023, when there were three or four times as many clean energy announcements every month, E2's data shows. The market cannot continuously absorb the volume of deals that followed the passage of the law, Bob Keefe, executive director of E2, said in an interview. He also noted that the November elections and anti-IRA rhetoric in Congress could be taking a toll. "We've had more than 30 attempts in the [US House of Representatives] to roll back the IRA, or to reduce it," Keefe said. "And the uncertainty over the election is casting a cloud over the future of these policies." The CEO of a company that is building a $2 billion battery factory in Georgia recently told Keefe that the overall political uncertainty has made it more difficult to raise money and hire people for the project. 'Not a partisan issue' E2 keeps a running tally of large-scale projects made possible by tax credits under the landmark 2022 legislation passed to stimulate clean energy manufacturing in the US. The group of business leaders advocates for policies that are "good for the economy … and the environment," with its members representing more than 2,500 companies nationwide. So far, North Carolina, Georgia, and South Carolina top all other states in terms of IRA investment volumes, E2 said. In all, more than $123 billion in investment and at least 105,454 jobs have been announced in 40 states and Puerto Rico since the IRA was enacted in August 2022, the group reported. Of those investments, 85% have gone to Republican congressional districts, as have 70% of the jobs. The reason behind the partisan discrepancy is that nearly all new electric vehicle manufacturing was placed in the South, where carmakers already had operations, Keefe said. EV manufacturing has captured the single largest share of IRA-related investments -- 142 projects and $81.2 billion in investments, E2's data shows. "What this shows is that this should not be a partisan issue," Keefe said. "There's nothing partisan about creating jobs, driving economic growth, attracting investments and making America more competitive, in my opinion." Platts Connect: News & Insights (spglobal.com)

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S&P Global Commodity Insights Weekly ET News Highlights – May 7, 2024

EU’s Hydrogen Bank auction clears below 50 euro cent/kg, funding 1.5 GW Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring you the biggest stories from the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices. The first auction under the European Hydrogen Bank mechanism has cleared well below expectations, with the seven winning projects bidding at 37-48 euro cent/kg (40-51 cents/kg) for a total 1.5 GW of electrolysis. The EU will provide Eur720 million to the projects, which will produce 1.58 million mt of green hydrogen over 10 years, the European Commission said. The subsidy amounts range from Eur8 million to Eur245 million, with two 500-MW projects -- Renato Ptx's Catalina project in Spain and MadoquaPower2X's project in Portugal -- taking the bulk. The EC had set a price ceiling for the inaugural auction of Eur4.50/kg. “The results of our first EU-wide auction for renewable hydrogen production are very encouraging,” European Commissioner for Climate Action Wopke Hoekstra said in the statement. “These innovative auctions, funded by the revenues from emissions trading, are a game-changer when it comes to producing renewable hydrogen in Europe.” Price of the week: 48 euro cent/kg The clearing price for the EU’s inaugural European Hydrogen Bank auction, well below the Eur4.50/kg ceiling, leaving a substantial green premium for offtakers to pick up. Editor’s pick: Premium and free content SPGlobal.com Japan set for world's first transport of liquefied CO2 Japan is set to start what will be the world's first CO2 transport on a low-temperature and low-pressure liquefied carrier over 1,000 km in a series of trial voyages, expected to play a key role in the country achieving its carbon neutrality goal by 2050. The trial voyage of the EXCOOL, operated by Nippon Gas Line, is due in early October from Kansai Electric's 1.8-GW Maizuru coal-fired power plant in Kyoto prefecture to a Tomakomai terminal in Hokkaido. Biden administration unveils updated SAF tax credit model, provides ethanol clarity The Biden administration released updated modeling for sustainable aviation fuel subsidies April 30, giving corn ethanol producers a chance of qualifying for an Inflation Reduction Act tax credit provided they can adopt three agricultural practices to reduce emissions. The updated guidance gave ethanol producers "important clarity" on the requirements to qualify for the IRA's 40B tax credit, senior White House advisor John Podesta said. Platts Connect Green premium remains for renewable hydrogen after EU's 1.5-GW auction result The low clearing price for the EU's inaugural European Hydrogen Bank auction, with funding for 1.5 GW of electrolysis across seven successful projects, shows a willingness to pay a "green premium" by offtakers, industry representatives said. South Korea to provide subsidies to hydrogen refueling stations South Korea will provide Won 8.2 billion ($6 million) in subsidies to hydrogen refueling stations where 152 private stations will receive an average of Won 54 million each for fuel purchases. The move is designed to help improve hydrogen refueling stations’ operating conditions and encourage the private sector to join the hydrogen ecosystem. California hydrogen pump price for mobility sector declines, still highest globally Platts California hydrogen pump price was assessed 1% lower on the month at $32.38/kg May 1, maintaining its position as the highest hydrogen pump price across the globe. As an early adopter of low-carbon hydrogen for transport, the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market in California has faced challenges with elevated hydrogen fuel prices at the pump and availability of reliable fueling infrastructure.

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Hydrogen and low-carbon ammonia are essential to decarbonization

Hydrogen is an essential component of the energy transition away from fossil fuels, both as a pollution-free transportation fuel and as a pathway for decarbonizing specific industrial sectors that will be difficult to decarbonize through other means, including steel, aluminum, chemicals, refining and cement. Before hydrogen can achieve its promise as a clean fuel, both hydrogen and its essential carrier ammonia face market hurdles. Those include production costs, which are still exceedingly high compared to other energy sources, building hydrogen infrastructure, solving transport issues, and market acceptance. These challenges aside, S&P Global Commodity Insight researchers see tremendous growth for this dynamic, clean-energy duo. In the S&P Global Commodity Insights Long-Term Hydrogen Supply and Demand Outlook , researchers estimate global hydrogen demand growth will triple from approximately 300 MMtoe (million metric tons of oil equivalent) in 2020 to more than 1 billion MMtoe by 2050. Demand growth will be fastest in Europe, but the passage of the US IRA climate bill is driving significant investment in the US. Dominated by low-carbon supply, the global ammonia market will triple by 2050 A strategic report from S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates the global ammonia market will triple in size by 2050—from approximately 200 million metric tons (MMT) in 202—to more than 600 MMT of supply by 2050. Two-thirds of that demand will be driven by low-carbon ammonia, which is expected to grow from its nascent state to more than 420 MMT. While ammonia is critical to hydrogen uptake as a carrier, low-carbon ammonia offers additional versatility as a feedstock and a fuel. A strategic report by S&P Global Commodity Insights, Low-carbon Ammonia: Facilitating the Transition to a Sustainable Future , examines low-carbon ammonia's versatility and transformative potential as a critical player in the energy transition, especially for hard-to-abate sectors. Solid regulatory frameworks essential to bridge the price-gap divide Despite the rapidly growing interest and investment in low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia, and ammonia’s versatility as both a carrier for hydrogen and as a fuel source, barriers, primarily price, are inhibiting market development, said S&P Global Commodity Insights. A significant ‘price gap’ exists between producer costs and premiums buyers are willing to pay, so governments must offset this price gap to ensure market development. “Project developers are trying to reduce the production cost of both low-carbon ammonia and hydrogen, but the current price gap for green ammonia production versus traditional fossil-fuel-derived supply is vast, which makes it uneconomic unless governments step in and pay the price gap to bring these greener products closer to parity,” said Vipul Garg, senior editor, Hydrogen and Ammonia Pricing at S&P Global Commodity Insights. “Without pricing certainty and transparency, you have no market. Project developers need price benchmarks to secure offtake agreements, and without these offtake agreements, these projects are considered not bankable—they cannot secure financing.” Garg says the EU will publish the final plans for its hydrogen support scheme in June, and it is expected to match the US IRA by leveraging a fixed premium that the government will pay for the greener product. Other countries and regions are also advancing or finalizing hydrogen support schemes, including Japan and Korea, with Japan taking a broader market approach. At the same time, Korea is focused on hydrogen use for power generation, possibly co-firing with coal. S&P Global Commodity Insights is considering hydrogen and derivative price assessments to support the buyer’s perspective based on the buyer’s willingness to pay. Says Garg, “The buyers in the market for low-carbon hydrogen and derivatives production, which includes ammonia, SAF and e-methanol, have limits.

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S&P Global Commodity Insights Weekly ET News Highlights – Apr 30, 2024

'Time to reorganize': Tesla reboots after EV sales, profits sputter in Q1 Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring you the biggest stories from the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices. Electric-vehicle maker Tesla is accelerating its new production line of cheaper EVs amid slowed sales growth and a US EV market shakeup. Tesla plans to debut a new generation of "more affordable" EVs in late 2024 or early 2025, accelerating original plans to launch the models in the second half of 2025. The company will also unveil an autonomous "Cybercab" in August and continue scaling up its energy storage business, CEO Elon Musk told investors and analysts. "We've updated our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of [our] previously mentioned start of production," the CEO said. "These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will use aspects of the next-generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and we'll be able to produce on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup." Accelerating the launch of the new EVs may lead to "achieving less cost reduction than previously expected," a company statement reads. Tesla added that it “remains committed” to a company-wide cost reduction. Musk declined to comment on whether Tesla's rollout of new EVs would be more "tweaks on existing models," given the planned repurposing of existing factory lines. Price of the week Platts assessed both battery grade lithium carbonate and hydroxide at $14,500/mt CIF Europe on April 26, down 8.2% and 8.8% respectively since the start of 2024. Some major EV producers, such as General Motors and Ford, cite high material costs as a cause for losses in their respective EV segments. SPGlobal.com Costly Australian renewable hydrogen may lose upcoming supply deals to Middle East, US Australia's renewable hydrogen projects could miss out on large offtake deals due to high production costs and a greater focus on renewable hydrogen in a crucial year when Asian buyers are set to launch tenders for their future needs for environment-friendly fuels. Enagas to present Spanish hydrogen grid plan as regulatory talks advance Spain's Enagas expects to present its proposal for a national hydrogen network in the coming days, following confirmation of its inclusion as a European Project of Common Interest. Total Spanish investment in the grid, including underground storage and the H2Med undersea link joining France, is estimated at Eur5.9 billion ($6.29 billion), Enagas CEO Arturo Gonzalo said. Platts Connect CHINA DATA: Compliance emission allowance prices hit new high of $13.55/mtCO2e on April 22 Weighted average prices of China's compliance emission allowances, or CEAs, hit a record high of Yuan 96.26/mtCO2e ($13.55/mtCO2e) on April 22, up 4.3% on the week, data from Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange showed. Everfuel further delays startup of 20-MW Danish electrolyzer to H2 2024 Danish green hydrogen developer Everfuel has further delayed the start of its 20-MW HySynergy electrolyzer project in Fredericia to the second half of 2024, from a previous planned start date of the second quarter. The electrolyzer itself is ready, but the company is still resolving issues with some sub-systems following commissioning tests, including a leakage identified during verification test of a gas holder, it said.